Tiers Remodeled

[Colby]

Colby,

Have we given up the idea of adopting the cap values you quoted from the New Era League as the "new" starting points prior to implementing this change?

No, those values, and how they were determined will still be used.  They reflect the real life salaries and economic fluctuations.  This way, 10 years down the road, we will still have similar salaries to the major leagues.

It may take several seconds to load.  I had to put up a large image size to get better clarity.  We don't know how our teams will finish in 2010.  We don't know what the total payrolls of the actual MLB teams will be for this year or next.  The 2012 caps rely on such information, so I had to fill it out for 2010, and I made it the same as 2009.  If you do better than 2009, then your cap could go up more for 2012.  If you do worse than 2009, then your cap could do down a bit from its listed 2012 value.  Of course, your cap could only change by 20% at most year-to-year, so please keep that in mind.

Some teams such as the Yankees, Phillies, and Tigers may have to cut back, but we knew their caps were too high to begin with.  They'll still only change by 20% and they could theoretically change by more in the old system, so this is even more stable for the big market teams. I like the results of this...

SEE ATTACHED IMAGE

[rcankosy]

Colby,

Have we given up the idea of adopting the cap values you quoted from the New Era League as the "new" starting points prior to implementing this change? 

[Colby]

FYI, I believe Ben meant that the Cap was the average of the Returns.  I'll make something up in Excel today and post it.

[clidwin]

 

[rcankosy]

I would like to see the 2011 team caps using this formula before casting my vote to determine the ramifications of this change.  Theories are nice, but I would like to see the end product.

Thanks guys.

[Colby]

At the end of each season, we combine how the team did (STAND) with their existing cap ranking (CAPR) to determine the value that season will have on their future cap numbers (did they gain or lose cap?).  Lets call that RETURN.

RETURN[2009] = Max(0.8CAPR(2009),Min(1.2CAPR(2009),3*CAPR(2009) + STAND(2009))

To calculate a team's salary cap in any season, we take the simple average of their past three seasons return, skipping the most recent (so we can always forecast one extra into the future):

CAP[2011] = RETURN[2007] + RETURN[2008] + RETURN[2009]

For the 2007 and 2008 seasons, where we do not have FGM standings, we can either use the actual MLB standings, or just a straight payroll number.

I like this idea... much easier for GMs to manage as well.  Let's vote RC...  I support Ben's modification to my idea. 

[Canada8999]

At the end of each season, we combine how the team did (STAND) with their existing cap ranking (CAPR) to determine the value that season will have on their future cap numbers (did they gain or lose cap?).  Lets call that RETURN.

RETURN[2009] = Max(0.8CAPR(2009),Min(1.2CAPR(2009),3*CAPR(2009) + STAND(2009))

To calculate a team's salary cap in any season, we take the simple average of their past three seasons return, skipping the most recent (so we can always forecast one extra into the future):

CAP[2011] = RETURN[2007] + RETURN[2008] + RETURN[2009]

For the 2007 and 2008 seasons, where we do not have FGM standings, we can either use the actual MLB standings, or just a straight payroll number.

[Canada8999]

Yes, sorry if my CAP wasn't clear - it is meant to be the value for CAPR calculated for that season.

[Colby]

Instead calculating the salary cap one year further in advance:

CAP[n] = AVERAGE(CAP[n-4],CAP[n-3],CAP[n-2])**
** for seasons where an FGM cap cannot be calculated using the quoted CAPR formula, actual MLB salary is used.

That way we'll always know our cap situation for the current and following seasons.

We would still need to take into account winning. 

[Canada8999]

In 2011, the league will feature variable salary caps for all teams based on the three-year average (2008-2010) payroll (as of beginning of playing season) + $20m.  The 2009 and 2010 seasons will be numbers from Franchise GM that we have whereas 2008 will be the actual payroll number for the 2008 teams.

Use those cap numbers, movement between cap values would be based on the following formula.

Cap ranking (CAPR) - 1st for highest cap, 30th for lowest from above list
Standings (STAND) - 1st for WS champ, 9th for best team out of playoffs, 30th for worst team in MLB

CAPR(2010) = Max(0.8CAPR(2009),Min(1.2CAPR(2009),3*CAPR(2009) + STAND(2009))
* see there are 20% bound restrictions.

The new cap ranking is then hooked up with the new 3-year average + $20m.  This gives the weighting 25% to performance and 75% to current market status.

Instead calculating the salary cap one year further in advance:

CAP[n] = AVERAGE(CAP[n-4],CAP[n-3],CAP[n-2])**
** for seasons where an FGM cap cannot be calculated using the quoted CAPR formula, actual MLB salary is used.

That way we'll always know our cap situation for the current and following seasons.